Category: politics

Day 588, part 2 – Does advertising work? – a comprehensive study

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I was over on Robben Island last week, on a trip well-documented on this blog. Robben Island doesn’t have many residents: it does vary depending on what’s going on on the island , but probably fewer than 120 on an average day. That doesn’t mean that their voting right should be forgotten though, and indeed, they can vote on the island – which is part of Cape Town’s Ward 54 – at the John Craig Hall (it’s named after one of the harbour engineers).

While we were staying over, some election posters appeared outside. There must have been about 25 of them down the road from the prisons into the village. All for one party. So nice to see a happy face.

(I’ve chosen to leave those unused 9.2inch WW2 shells – now used as road bollards – in shot. Seemed appropriate.)

Otherwise, it seemed like the island had been passed over in terms of the election. Which was quite nice, actually. No-one needs more election news. Ever.

Anyway, with 92% of the votes counted at the time of writing, the DA have held onto the city, with over 60% of the vote:

But look at that: a cursory glance will show you that the EFF recorded the most votes at just 2 (two) voting stations across the entire metropole: at UWC – those pesky young firebrands! – and… wow… John Craig Hall on Robben Island!

With just 31 votes in their favour (vs 19 for the ANC, 5 for the DA, 2 each for the ACDP and the VF+ and a whole 1 for the LAND party) (and none for Patricia de Lol)…

…it might have cost almost a poster per cross in the box, and is totally overwhelmed by the 92% voting for the DA in Camp’s Bay et al. but the result is there for all to see.

Robben Island is red.

From this, we can conclude that advertising clearly does work, and the Ad Wizardry of putting up 25 posters on a chunk of rock 6km from civilisation… was probably (possibly) almost certainly worth the effort.

Day 587 – No overall winner, many overall losers

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Elections aren’t actually a zero sum game. I mean, in numbers, they might appear so, but when translated into actual meaning, obviously things can change drastically. Because as soon as any one of those numbers dips below 50%, it’s game on for coalitions and kingmakers in these marriages of inconvenience. And that’s when things get stupidly complicated and fall apart in SA. And it’s always service delivery that suffers.

Now you might think that I’m being a bit pessimistic about how this is going to go – Danish Ambassador Tobias Elling Rehfeld certainly does:

But aside from finding that common platform of priorities – and sticking with it – there’s the big question of egos.
[TW: gross generalisations approaching] Here’s a hypothesis: in the Danish model, politicians get into politics to make a difference to the people of their ward and country. Sadly, around here, it’s more about self-enrichment, personal power and standing, and inflating one’s own ego. We’ve seen it time and time again: look at Malema wanting more than the ANC and then repeatedly flip-flopping on every issue whichever way makes him popular; look at de Lille flitting from one party to another, taking credit for the good bits, refusing the responsibility for the bad ones; look at the Mongameli Bobani and the NMB debacle; look at Tshwane a few years back. Disastrous.

Why wouldn’t it happen in these new-found situations as well? After all, as TER goes on to say:

But while that would certainly benefit the actual electorate, that’s not what the politicians in question want.
Quite the opposite.

Joburg is a particular mess. The last projected results I saw left even the most probable (or potentially stable) coalitions sitting on about 45% each. I’ll be delighted if I’m wrong, but I fear that it spells out 5 years of bickering, infighting and lack of service delivery for the city as one or other side tries to balance up 12 x 0.5%s to get over the line. Fugly.

Nationwide, the appalling turnout and the bitty results do show an overall dissatisfaction and disenchantment with the larger parties and the current system. But given that the three largest parties still look likely to get to somewhere around 80% overall, it’s unlikely that anyone is going to listen to that message. So it’s up to the smaller parties to tell us just how amazingly they’ve done, while not wielding any actual power, while the big dogs explain away their losses and disappointment with spin and smoke and mirrors.

Or just outright denial.

Lol.

Oh. And someone will blame white people. Somehow.

The only really good bit about yesterday was the utterly disastrous hilarious crash and burn of the Cape Party. Again. They were still belligerently chucking out hyperbole and mixed idioms yesterday during the voting:

For the record, there was no sleet or snow. A few heavy rain showers is all.
And surely the water surrounding the allegedly sinking ship (whatever that represents) might actually be a good place to be of the ship is actually going down and the rest of the world is ablaze. Take a lifebelt. And don’t pretend that you care about “the future of our children” when you go around supporting anti-vax protests.

Bunch of…

Whatever their plan was, it didn’t work. Who could have thought that appropriating and subtly altering the word “Brexit” with all its resounding economical successes and feelgood news stories into “Capexit” would have such a devastating effect upon their (minimal) potential election success?

So weird. So sad.

UPDATE:

Mess.

UPDATE 2:

Mess.

Day 585 – Municipal Election day

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It is, as you may have gathered from the title above, Municipal Election day in South Africa. A great day to avoid social media. (OK, that’s every day but especially so today.)

Gotta love politics.

Image

But today marks another opportunity to choose the least worst party to run things in your locality for the next 5 years. I say “least worst”, because the best performing municipality in the entire country (and it was Cape Agulhas, nogal!!) scored just 65/100 on a local news site’s ranking system. Nationally, the average score was 45.

Room for improvement? Definitely. But who’s going to be able to do it?

Well, love them or hate them (and remembering that we don’t use social media as any sort of barometer for anything around politics, kids), there’s clear evidence that the DA run municipalities better than other parties run municipalities. 8 of the top 10 and 15 of the top 20 here are controlled by the DA, and that for a party that only runs 25 of the county’s 278 municipalities.

Are they perfect? Far from it.
Would they make a good national governing party? I’m not convinced.
Are they the best party for running municipalities? Yes. Yes, they are. Clearly.

I’m not a DA member. I’m not even allowed to vote.
I’m only allowed to pay my taxes. Then other people get to decide what happens to them.
I’d just like them used well.

Too much to ask? Too much to ask.

The fact is that what is – somewhat obviously – the best choice to run your local municipality can only score 65% for doing just that, is a sad indictment on just how poor out political choices are at the moment.

Still, you should do YOUR research and you should vote for whomever you believe will run YOUR ward best (or least worst), and not be swayed by promises that can’t be kept by municipal councils – even if that party sweeps to a landslide victory in your ward – you’re not going to end lockdown or enable Western Cape secession. Look out for promises that they know they’ll never have to keep.

Oh, and obviously avoid anything or anyone who has anything to do with Patricia de Lille.
That’s just common sense.

Day 562 – All the precautions in place

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Great news! /s

The Jacob Zuma Foundation – essentially the organisation of his cronies who oversaw the theft of trillions of Rands during his presidential tenure – has announced a “Welcome Home Prayer Day” for their allegedly ailing idol.

Current Covid regulations allow for stupidly large gatherings of 750 indoors and up to 2000 outdoors, but the organisers of this event likely won’t give a flying fuck about those sort of rookie numbers. In fact, they’d love to make a statement of support for JZ while sticking a finger up at Cyril Ramaphosa’s government. It doesn’t look like they are planning to limit the how many people turn up:

“Everyone is welcome. No accreditation is required. People are encouraged to bring their own refreshments.”

said the Foundation’s chief spokesweasel, Mzwanele Manyi.

But if they are not taking precautions around the numbers of people present, are they at least putting some other measures in place to ensure that this won’t turn into a huge superspreader event?

Of course they are. They’ve got the big guy – almost as big as JZ himself – in:

“This occasion will take place in KwaZulu-Natal, eThekwini at the place called the People’s Park where God’s atmosphere will ensure that the coronavirus is blown away and not passed between the attendees.”

What (as I have asked so very often before) could go wrong?

And if this method is so successful, why haven’t we already applied it to other public places, like taxis, supermarkets, restaurants and actual public places?

“Sorry sir, you don’t appear to be wearing a mask as per our store’s regulations.”
“Oh, it’s ok, God’s atmosphere means that I can’t pass anything on.”
“Ah yes. Of course. Sorry to have bothered you. Have a great day.”

Could we maybe see if this might work for Ebola or HIV? Or even just the common cold?
How amazing would that be? Think of the millions of lives it could save.
But no, it seems that it’s just the People’s Park in eThekweni.
And even then just on Thursday.

From 10 o’clock.

Bring your own refreshments.

And when asked if JZ himself would be making an appearance?

“Look, as to whether President Zuma is going to be there on that day. Let’s just pray that he is there, but the situation is still fluid because President Zuma is still on medical parole. His condition is a fluid condition. We hope that on that day the doctors will allow him to be there. So we are hoping for the best.”

Is it too much to hope for that the fluid in question is incurable, chronic, runny diarrhoea? I don’t like to wish such nastiness on people generally, but I feel that this guy is a very deserving case.

Too sick to be in prison for contempt of court, very likely just well enough to turn up and sing and dance on a stage in front of his devotees. Bless those doctors and their amazing work.

And God’s atmosphere. Obviously.

Day 516, part 2 – Places to donate money

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Earlier today, the JG Zuma Foundation – the somewhat shady organisation with no official headquarters or web presence (ok, there’s a twitter account) – set up to spread happy happy joy joy stories (wholesale propaganda) about our horrifically corrupt ex-President, posted this image (which I have slightly adulterated), requesting donations towards legal fees as JZ (occasionally) tries to fight the numerous charges against him.

Never mind that this dude and his cronies syphoned billions from the national coffers. Never mind that his family regularly share images of their latest luxury purchases and five star trips abroad. Never mind that his homestead had “security upgrades” which cost the public R246,000,000.

He needs your money.

Right.

But there are still people who will donate to this cause. Like there are still people who will take Ivermectin for Covid-19.

Great news: you don’t have to be these people.

If you have money to spare (in this economy, ruined by guess who? ha!), then please don’t give it to JZ.

Give it to The Haven and help homeless people in Cape Town who don’t have a R250million mansion to live in.

Or give it to Gift of the Givers, who are doing remarkable work all over South Africa and overseas.

Or even just go and treat yourself to a burger or something. You deserve it.

Just please – please – don’t give it to Jacob.