Category: elections

I wish I hadn’t…

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To cut a long story slightly shorter: I have been sleeping with the dog.

Not like that. Get out.

But the beagle is very bandaged up and not very mobile. From Wednesday, she’s going to be less bandaged up, but also not very mobile, but that’s another story. Anyway, she’s still trying to navigate the slings and arrows of her current situation, and quite regularly getting herself stuck. Either lying down, sitting down or standing up.

And so, at the moment, I’m spending my nights downstairs on a spare mattress and helping the beagle each time she gets stuck. It happens quite a lot each night.

It’s not been fun, I’ll be honest. My sleep is so disturbed that my smartwatch can’t even detect that it’s happened. Perhaps because it’s not really happening. And so I’ve been grabbing an hour or two’s nap during the day to try and keep myself going.

This morning, I couldn’t do that, because of reasons, and so I sat with the dog and I read the world news.

Dear lord. It’s not pretty out there, is it?

Because of the situation described above, and perhaps because of just a reasonable amount of self-preservation, I haven’t really been keeping too up to date with the situation in the USA. And of course, it’s always difficult to find objective, unbiased views when wanting(?) to learn about these things, because these days, the world is more polarised than a pair of expensive sunglasses.

But it’s easier to make judgements about the rights and wrongs, and about how I feel about what’s going on, when the actual information is coming directly from the goons themselves. In years to come, historians are going to have an absolute field day with all those primary sources.

They really just put it out there, don’t they?

The scary bits for me are twofold. OK, threefold. But the first fold is a fairly obvious one. Still, I guess that it shouldn’t be overlooked.

The fact that the (apparently, potentially) legitimately elected President of the USA is… well… like that.

250 years of democracy and it’s evolved to give us… him? What went wrong?

Obviously, a lot went wrong: there are many, many factors in how this came about, but honestly… what an absolute disaster for the entire world (minus Russia and China, obviously).

Number two – and I use that term with all of its meanings – that they are so open, so brazen, so completely shameless and unabashed about the things that they are doing and the way that they are doing them. Everyone keeps referring to that guy in Germany in the 1930s, and terrifyingly, that’s quite reasonable, but there have been plenty of other examples before and since and none of them have been pleasant, and none of them have worked out well. The thing is that many of those examples weren’t elected: they seized power via non-democratic means and then held on – and on, and on.

This twat won an election (apparently).

And that brings me on to the third fold. His supporters. It’s a cult. It’s just a well-managed cult of frighteningly stupid, easily-led people.
I don’t use the c-word lightly, but if it looks, smells and quacks like a cult… well…

It doesn’t seem to matter how outrageous the claim or the story (or the lie) that is used to justify the action: it’s lapped up like manna from heaven. There is literally not a second given to even contemplate questioning the motive or think critically about the situation.

Orange man good.
Weird – and I mean really weird – billionaire good.

That’s a cult. And it’s running one of the most powerful nations on earth. It’s unbelievable.

Ah Jesus.

I don’t think I’m going to surprise anyone in making the somewhat radical statement that I really don’t think that this is going to end well. And it’s going to be f******g miserable while it gets us there, as well.

I read the news today, oh my.

I wish I hadn’t.

Germany does it again

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After this post and this post, both describing the obvious difference between East and West Germany (Germanies?), the Germans have gone out of their way to do it again in their recent elections.

Incidentally, I love the irony that I have the choice of how I want that image to display:

OK. Let’s play it safe and go centre. I mean, I don’t want it on the left, but Jesus – obviously not as far right as East Germany!

Interestingly, Elon’s darlings, the AfD, won a couple of places in West Germany this time around as well, namely Gelsenkirchen and Kaiserslautern. It turns out that those are both poorly-run cities with high unemployment and high levels (for Western Europe at least) of poverty.

And when there is a vacuum of power (or even a perceived vacuum of power) in a place with disgruntled, lower-educated voters, well, the populist parties with no real policies except “blame the immigrants*” will happily step in and take power with 25%, and the rest of the vote split between the “real” parties.

Tight.

But the more concerning issue is that – even aside from these two outliers – the AfD was able to garner around 20% of the vote in many constituencies right across Germany, and was only kept out by stronger performances of one or other of the CDU/CSU or the SPD.

Worrying times. Unless you’re a Nazi.

.

* or whites, blacks, Mexicans etc etc etc.

An odd morning

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Woke up to news of Stage 6 (six) loadshedding and the sound of a spotter plane and fire helicopters overhead.

This isn’t good.

The Stage 6 loadshedding is “retribution from the Government for the VAT increase not going through in the Budget speech”, according to some online pundits. But this seems a little silly to me. The Budget speech was postponed four days ago. Why wait until 1am on a Sunday morning if you are a vindictive ruling party wanting to make a point? Who – apart from the most weird of tinfoil hat wearers (see above) – is going to put those two and two together to make four? Far more likely is that the power grid – held together with vinegar and brown paper borrowed from Jack of the famous nursery rhyme – fell over when someone forgot to tie the string properly.

Others online suggested that the loadshedding was somehow the City of Cape Town’s fault, arguing that “Cape Independence can’t come soon enough”, while conveniently forgetting that a massive 0.26% of the 58.64% of voters who turned out, actually supported that idea in last year’s election.

Either way, any way, whatever: it’s a shlep being without power for 12 hours a day. Again.

The fire is on Table Mountain, probably about 4km from our place, but it’s heading up and away from us at the moment. “African prayer groups” was the wildest conspiracy theory I saw for this one, but why not “retribution from the Government for the VAT increase not going through in the Budget speech”? Cyril’s place is literally 1km from where it mysteriously started in the early hours of the morning.

Either way, it’s far from sorted yet, and the spotter plane is still circling overhead, endlessly spotting.

The best way to get around these problems is to try and ignore the drone of the plane and the lack of electricity, and go to the gym. And so that’s what I did. And it was as I left the gym that I thought I saw the silhouette of a woodpecker in a tree in the back garden.

As you do.

But no, woodpeckers do have a rather distinctive shape. So I wandered closer to investigate and yes:

The old bird proof/ID photography policy thing worked well here. Get any photo first, no matter how bad, and then try to work from there. That’s what this is: the first bit. I gave up on the work from there bit, as I was knackered from the gym.

And that’s a female Olive Woodpecker (Dendropicos grisocephalus). Not uncommon, apparently, but a first for me, and certainly a first for me in our garden. The male was there too, but he didn’t hang around for a hastily taken photo like his missus. She was also gone pretty soon afterwards (probably as retribution from the Government for the VAT increase not going through in the Budget speech), but a nice spot and one to watch out for again.

I’m looking forward to an afternoon of napping and football watching, now that the odd morning is done.

More on that thing that’s happening over there

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As a scientist, I have written a lot of stuff which is detailed, well referenced, and (I think, at least) explains things in a straightforward, step-by-step manner which can be understood by the layperson. Sometimes, I write them on the blog. Like this, maybe. However, recently, those sort of posts have been few and far between. They take a lot of research and effort and this blog is something of a hobby for me, not a job. I simply don’t have the time to lob out 2,000 words on stuff very regularly. I’m sure this is a relief to some of you and a bit of an annoyance to others, but that’s the way the cookie crumbles, much to the beagle’s delight.

Other people do write stuff for a living though, and so I’m going to piggy back on a really well-researched, really nicely written post here today. It’s from Your Local Epidemiologist (YLE), which is a sceince communication website:

Providing a direct line of “translated” public health science to you.

And they do exactly that: cutting through the big words and the jargon…

Scientists, Engineers, Lawyers and, most of all, Medical Doctors have been using unnecessary terminology to maintain their lofty positions in society for years. I hate it. One of the most important things I have learnt during my career is that presentations, explanations, even informal chats about work and technical stuff should always be pitched according to one’s audience. Sure, chat to the Prof about Extended Spectrum Beta-Lactamase producing Gram Negative Bacilli, call them ESBLs – he’ll understand. But when you’re explaining it to your mum, call them “superbugs” – and then she’ll understand too. Otherwise you’re wasting your time.

…to give a easy to understand – and so a useful and easy to learn from! – version of what’s happening in public health at the moment.

And that’s exactly what Kristen Panthagani has done here.
[PDF mirror here for anyone struggling with the Substack website]

She describes in intimate detail and open, honest language why Trump’s health policies – in the hands of the loony RFK Jr. – are based on inconsistencies and nonsense, and the huge and very real costs of getting this sort of thing wrong. Which they are clearly doing.

It’s a really great read with fundamental concepts which apply to so many other of the dodgy internet health cowboys and grifters plaguing us out there, and I’d fully encourage you to take a few minutes out to read through it and follow some of the links which support her watertight case.

I’d write more of this sort of thing if I could.
For the moment, though, please enjoy someone else’s fine work.

Still grey

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Apparently, there’s a chance of some sunshine tomorrow, but for the moment, the rain keeps falling. Almost 350mm in the last 10 days now. It’s pretty miserable. This photo isn’t from today, because I’m here, not there, but I’d guess that it’s a fairly accurate representation of much of the Western Cape at the moment. Especially the bit with that lighthouse on it.

Even the much vaunted Hungarian goose down duvet has failed, and we have required additional coverage for the past couple of nights. Sure, 10 degrees or so won’t seem like a big deal to many readers, but we’re just not set up for that here. And with good reason: it really doesn’t make sense for 90% of the year. So no central heating, double glazing, warm carpets etc etc. And when it gets cold at night outside, it gets cold at night inside too.

Trump shot a bit this morning. Footy final a bit later today.

That line just for context when I read back about how much more important the crappy weather is to me than politics or sport, when I find this post in 5 years time.