Category: learning curve

Day 618 – Infectiousness v Lethality

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As we look at the latest figures from Gauteng, ground zero for SA’s Omicron-driven Fourth wave (again via @rid1tweets), we see this scary graph:

The hospital and death figures always lag a week or two behind, so really, all the we can say about Omicron at the moment is that it’s spreading like wildfire. Given that the conditions at the start of each of the three previous waves was pretty much the same, and that we should now have some protection from (some) previous infections and (a bit of) vaccination, we’d wouldn’t expect to see the black line rearing up like a pissed off Cape Cobra in the Overberg, rather it should be flatter, like a mole snake on the R27 West Coast Road.

It’s so steep because the virus is spreading very quickly, which suggests that it is very infectious. And that would fit with the (anecdotal) evidence I’m seeing in my friends and friends of friends in Cape Town. Every second person has suddenly got it: some not so bad, some bad, some vaccinated, some not (and some unknown), some previously infected, some not, some careful, most… you know. Mmm.

But it wasn’t here a week ago and now it’s everywhere.

Increased infectiousness = increased transmissibility.
And so the gradient of that black line is very bad news. Not least because of this:

Yep – a low percentage can still be a very big number if it’s a low percentage of a huge number.

Delta looked like a variant that you wanted to avoid because it has/had some nasty morbidity and mortality associated with it. Omicron looks like one to avoid because it has some really nasty transmissibility associated with it – and we don’t know about the morbidity or the mortality yet.

But either way, it’s not looking good.

Day 617 – SOFS – and tomorrow’s solar eclipse

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Last day of school today for our two. A very successful haul at their prizegiving and some very proud parents.
Well done, guys.

Later this evening, we will gather as a family around the braai to perform the age old ceremonies of the burning the exam timetables and the switching off of the weekday alarm clocks. And having a braai.

Although tomorrow (which isn’t a weekday), I might well be up a little earlier to see the solar eclipse. Weather permitting – and it’s not looking great.

This will be a TOTAL ECLIPSE if you are in Antarctica (but I’m not there): in Cape Town, we will only see a little nibble taken out of the sun – 11.5% at 0819 to be exact:

As you can see, South and West is the place to be for the best effect. Realistically, you’re not going to notice the missing 1% in Walvis Bay, much less the hidden 0.1% if you’re in Bloemfontein.

IMPORTANT: Don’t look at the sun through anything like a camera or telescope or with your naked eye.
Bad things will happen. Damage will occur.

Rather use a pinhole projector – they’re really easy to make at home.

But, returning to my original point, it’s the first day of the holidays, so if I look outside and it’s cloudy?
Straight back to bed.

Day 610 – Nu

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[The next day: Ugh. You do 500+ words on it and then they move the goalposts. As history will now tell you, we… they?… actually named this new variant: Omicron. Anyway, on with the post, which has generated anger and hate mail (n=1), but which I stand by. Take care out there.]

There was a tweet thread alongside the Worrying Numbers that I mentioned the other day. It was about a potentially nasty new variant that was causing some of the cases. It looked horrible, but the numbers were very small. The Guru mentioned it to me as well, with the same caveat.

The numbers aren’t so small now, though.

And so now we’re red-listed in the UK again – completely understandably, given the situation. Who wouldn’t want to try and keep this out of their country?

But it’s a hammer blow to the local tourist industry, it’s upsetting for friends and family who had plans for the December holidays, and it’s a real gut punch for us, who were expecting to see my Dad on Monday for the first time in two years.

Not now.

And then there is the other side of this that the UK Red List announcement has made everyone overlook: this is potentially a very ugly development in this awful pandemic, and we’re going to have to deal with it, because even if the UK’s swift action has stopped it spreading to there, we don’t have that luxury: it’s already right here.

So what happens next?
Watch this space, I guess.


UPDATE: Massive and predictable backlash on social media against the UK for reinstating the travel ban from SA and surrounds. And yes, as I said above, it’s horrific for the tourism industry here. And if you look at the respective numbers of cases in the UK and SA, then you might be forgiven for thinking there’s something not quite right with them banning us. But then you remember that they are 70% vaccinated, and so the cases that they are seeing are not translating to hospitalisations and deaths like they are in other countries with much lower vaccination rates. Because of that, they have the luxury of handling things very differently.


Oh, and add to that the fact that – at the time of writing – they have detected 0 Nu variant cases there.

And if there was ever a chance of keeping this variant that the experts are calling “grim”, “scary” and “a worst case scenario” out of your country, you’d surely want your government to do the same. You don’t get a second chance at this.
Will it work? Maybe. Maybe not. I’d guess that the chances are fairly high that it’s already there.
But if it isn’t, well, then their quick and decisive action – unpleasant as it may be for us here in SA – may just have saved literally thousands of lives.

Safety first makes sense here. There’s always the option to relax the restrictions as more information becomes available (obviously assuming that information suggests that you should relax the restrictions).
You can’t retrospectively close your borders.

Day 608, part 2 – Worrying numbers

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This graph, depicting Covid vaccination percentages and death rates for EU countries has been doing the rounds.

It’s pretty self explanatory, and pretty damning.

While Covid cases across Europe are spiking at the moment, there are two important things to take into account when reviewing the data: firstly, many of the cases at the moment seem to be in unvaccinated children (more reason to vaccinate them and quash that reservoir), and secondly, the death rates from Covid – when compared to the first wave (prior to vaccinations) – are thankfully much lower.

While we don’t have any means of stopping Covid 100%, using vaccinations (and other measures) is making a difference, and it’s clear from looking at graphs like the one above that countries are saving literally hundreds of thousands of lives by having effective vaccination policies.

Sadly, SA isn’t going to be one of those countries.

Stick us into that graph above and we’re sitting next to bottom at 35%. And we’re going nowhere fast:

It’s really looks like we’ve just given up. And sadly, that attitude is probably going to have some dire consequences over next next few months.

I’m running out of ideas to get people to get vaccinated. If literally saving your life isn’t going to persuade people, I have no idea what will. Well, apart from trying to avoid another alcohol ban, perhaps.

UPDATE: Now, this:

Well, no surprises there, given the numbers above. What a complete disaster.

Day 607 – Duel Winner

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Tried my first Duel on Geoguessr last night. Won it, thanks to a quick spot of a 0141 phone code on an Estate Agents sign in… well… in Glasgow, obviously.

You can kind of see the helpful sign on the right there, through my VICTORY! screen overlay.

I still haven’t quite worked out the rules of the Duel mode, but whoever gets closest to the mark seems to knock points off the other one until someone has none left. Ironically, you seem to start with 6000 points. Which is nice.
The timing is odd though: 15 seconds to make a guess sometimes, as long as you want on others. Weird.

Still, I’m all for more ways to play. Keeps what’s left of the brain going.