Day 354 – Still locked

I’ve been doing some rudimentary calculations and I reckon that we’re just 9 days away from what many people would call “1 year of lockdown”. Sure, when we first started there was a lot more locking down than there is now. We weren’t allowed to go out at all. Now, we’re not allowed to go out between midnight and 4am. But the State of Disaster in this often Disastrous State is still in force and will continue to be for at least another month (and obviously waaaay beyond that, too). Everyone is fully expecting a third wave of infections here, probably around May or June. And despite the government’s best promises, I’m not confident of getting a vaccination much before the end of the year. And that’s hugely optimistic, according to this useful tool.

It’s a gloomy picture, exacerbated by the miserable weather today, the horrendous traffic (ironically brought about by the easing of lockdown) and by the return of loadshedding which popped in last week to say hi and has decided to stay until at least Wednesday. So, amidst the rain, the jams, the infections and the lack of electricity, it is – once again – amazing to me that this country continues to… well… to continue continuing.

Well. Mostly, anyway. I’ve just taken a call from the place that is servicing my car today to tell me that they can’t do any wheel alignments (I wanted four done) (or one big one) until they get their wheel alignment machine mended because loadshedding has broken it.

But my major issue is still the amount that we are contributing to the economy via this new house. A blocked drain and a leaking pipe are today’s exciting events. The plumbers are digging through bathroom walls and trying to break as few tiles as possible, but due to the terrible way that the original pipework was installed, that’s no easy task.

Right. Let me go and see how they are getting on with their work.
After all, it’s not like there’s any rush to go and fetch the car or get a vaccination, is it?

You want pure nature? OK, die young.

I spotted a nice little rant from Jeffrey Kluger on on anti-vaxxers.

I hope that writing it was some sort of cathartic experience for Jeffrey, as while it carefully explains all the reasons that anti-vaxxers are foolish, short-sighted and downright wrong, it will have about as much effect as bringing a banana to a gunfight. But I recognise that sometimes you just need to get these things out of your system before the frustration makes your brain go totes cray cray and you start using sloppy internet slang.

Parents who oppose vaccines are not only misinformed, they’re spoiled, having grown up in a world that stands behind the berms built by the scientists and vaccine developers who came before them. If you’ve never seen measles — or polio or whooping cough or mumps — you have the luxury of believing they don’t exist.

Forget the pretty flowers and the Instagrammable sunsets. There’s another side to Nature: viruses, evil bacteria, disease, sickness. Yep, sadly, it turns out that Nature is actually a bit of a bitch. As Jeffrey points out, science (or “messing with nature”) allows us to live longer, it means that we don’t die in childhood, it means that simple infections don’t kill us anymore (for the moment, anyway).
Because those were all things that happened a lot before science happened (see here).
Now, I think that those are good things. Positive things. Fine reasons to embrace and celebrate the progress we have made. Working in science, it’s disappointing when others don’t feel that way, but it’s tragic when their irresponsible decisions impact on the defenceless individuals in our society.

I’m not going to carry on. My rant would have about as much effect as Jeffrey’s and rather than raising my blood pressure by thinking about the idiots, I’d rather be doing my (little) bit to stop quite so many people dying of TB. That said, do click through and have a read of Jeffrey’s column, because it does make very good sense.

On Fracking and Vaccing 1

No shortage of interesting stuff arriving on my desktop today, much of it (for some obscure reason) along the (shouldn’t really be, but because of irrational fears, still) contentious issues of Shale Gas Extraction via Hydraulic Fracturing and Vaccination.

Not together, you understand. That would be at best, unhelpful, and at worst, downright messy.

[Note, 500 words in: This is already getting too long; I’m going to split it into two posts]

The vaccination one first. It’s a post by Jed Lipinski on Slate and discusses the case for legal action against parents who choose not to vaccinate their children. Not, I hasten to add, specifically because of that choice, but because their unvaccinated child may then infect (and cause harm to, or kill) another child. The post is triggered by an episode of a popular American drama, but also refers to this paper by Caplin et al. which asks:

Is there a case for holding non-vaccinators legally liable for harm caused to others by their inaction?

It makes interesting reading.

As a microbiologist and a father of a child who has – by chance – just had her MMR booster and whose teacher is currently off school with Rubella, I would welcome action like this. And that’s not me being vindictive – it’s not because I don’t understand the reasoning behind parents’ who choose not to vaccinate their children:

Parents who don’t vaccinate their kids may have the most heartfelt reason in the world: fear for their own children’s safety.

But, as Lipinski goes on to say:

…the basis for that fear is simply unfounded, and their decisions are putting other kids directly at risk.

So this decision basically comes down to a lack of good education and a lack of understanding. But, putting myself in their position, without those things, it’s fairly easy to see why a parent might make that choice. I am regularly approached by reasonable, intelligent, sane parents who are still concerned as to whether they should vaccinate their children or not.
The attempts to educate parents such as these are clearly failing; either they are being swayed, to varying degrees, by irrational, unscientific arguments, or quite simply, they don’t want to learn – they’re not bothered.

The threat of legal action (unpretty though it is) might just be catalyst for making them sit up and take notice. Almost like having to sign an indemnity form ahead of some activity. Yes, sure you can make your own decisions, just be aware that you are also responsible for the consequences of those decisions. This is a good thing.

However, I imagine that the chances of this sort of law ever making it into reality are slim to zero. And even then, I don’t think that it’s as clear cut as the paper suggests:

Since epidemiologists today can reliably determine the source of a viral infection, the authors argue, a parent who decides not to vaccinate his kid and thus endangers another child is clearly at fault and could be charged with criminally negligent homicide or sued for damages.

There’s a clearly-explained, detailed hypothetical case (of Jinny and Michael) described in the paper, a timeline of events and tests that the authors conclude:

would provide a reliable case for causation.

and apparently:

Utilizing the scientific tools available today, it cannot be proven with 100 percent certainty that Jinny infected Michael with measles. Nevertheless, current scientific techniques could lead experts to state they believe that the preponderance of the evidence, with 95 percent certainty or better, that Jinny infected Michael.

I’m not sure I agree at all with that 95% figure and they don’t state where they got it from. In addition, this is a perfect, uncontaminated (hypothetical) case, and even then they can’t definitively prove causation. You’ll have to read the case to understand these questions in context, but: What if Jinny had caught measles from another – local – unvaccinated child, rather than having contracted it in Germany? The genotyping would be far less specific.
Or what if Michael actually has a life outside the daycare facility, where he may have had contact with other unvaccinated (and infected) children? Can his parents really say that he has had no contact with any other measles-infected child? Can they prove this? How?

Caplin et al. ask:

Can Science Link Jinny’s Measles Infection to Michael’s Death?

And even in this “perfect” case, I say that no, it can’t.
If I were a lawyer for the defence, I’d be counting my huge fee licking my lips at the plateful of ifs, buts and maybes and the side-salad of assumption.

So in summary, suing parents who don’t vaccinate their kids: Nice idea. Right idea. But never going to work.

Back to the drawing board.

[I’ll get the fracking stuff done later or maybe tomorrow – watch this space]

Wakefield’s Shameful Legacy

A new study, ironically published in The Lancet, raises serious doubts that the goal of elimination of measles in Europe by 2010 can be attained. The reason for this re-emergence of a disease which was completely under control 15 years ago is the “shoddy, litigation- and profit-driven pseudoscience” of Andrew Wakefield, whose now discredited study published in The Lancet in 1998, linked the MMR vaccine with autism in children.

Measles virus: small, but nasty

It later emerged that Wakefield was paid up to £55,000 by solicitors acting on behalf of the families of some autistic children to prove a link between the vaccine and the condition. This was something that he somehow forgot to mention to his fellow authors, medical authorities or The Lancet.

Simon Murch, one of the leading doctors involved with Wakefield’s research at the Royal Free, said that news of the £55,000 legal funding was “a very unpleasant surprise”.
“We never knew anything about the £55,000 — he had his own separate research fund,” said Murch. “All of us were surprised… We are pretty angry.”

10 years on and Wakefield’s scaremongering has resulted in a 13-year high in the number of measles cases in the UK: an “embarrassing problem” according to the WHO report’s authors. Vaccination levels have improved somewhat over the past 2 years, with concerted “catch-up” campigns for those who missed vaccination, but even cases of measles in South America, which was all but free of the disease, have been traced back to Europe.

Between 2007-8 in Europe, there were over 12,000 cases of measles, which should have been erradicated from the continent by next year. Over 1,000 of them were in the UK:

1,049 is the highest number of measles cases recorded in England and Wales since the current method of monitoring the disease was introduced in 1995.
This rise is due to relatively low MMR vaccine uptake over the past decade and there are now a large number of children who are not fully vaccinated with MMR. This means that measles is spreading easily among unvaccinated children.

As a microbiologist and a parent, I strongly urge all parents to do the decent thing and vaccinate their children. These are not called “preventable diseases” for nothing. Apart from the benefits for you and your kids, there should be a collective sense of social responsibility to help reduce the reservoir of these illnesses in society.
The results of a decade of misinformation, poor science and hysterical reporting are becoming evident now: disease, disability and even death for hundreds of children, all of which could and should have been avoided.

Don’t let it happen to your kids.