It’s not just about measles

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More from YLE: Your Local Epidemiologist. And they are still banging on about measles.

I (last) “banged on about it” here.
Great post, that. Just enough rant, balanced nicely with facts and an appropriate amount of sarcasm.

Anyway…

The latest newsletter from YLE has the same title as this post. That’s not coincidence – I copied it.

Because it makes a very good point:

It’s not just about measles. It’s about what measles represents.

As scientists, having worked and studied hard for many years to become experts in our fields, we need to remember that not everyone is like us. Some people studied hard to become mechanics or accountants or teachers. And what seems obvious to us, perhaps only seems obvious to us because of our studying and our expertise. Much like the reasons behind a broken engine will be more obvious to a mechanic, or the meaning of a balance sheet will be more obvious to an accountant. And also teacher… stuff. Probably.

The measles outbreak in the US (and in Europe); the reappearance of a deadly disease that we had completely under control in the developed world is every bit as terrifying as it is completely avoidable.

Measles is a canary in the coal mine. When measles reappears in a country like the U.S., it signals that something has gone seriously wrong. This is a disease we had essentially eliminated—thanks to one of the safest and most effective vaccines in the history of medicine. But the way things are heading, the U.S. is at risk of losing its elimination status this year. This is not just a failure to move forward—it’s the unraveling of decades of progress, representing one of the greatest public health achievements of our era.

It’s a massive failure, and it’s a huge indicator of the high level of mistrust in what is – objectively – clear and obvious, successful science. But as we see regularly in politics, when there is a vacuum of power – or the perception of such – then nefarious parties will take advantage and move in.

It’s because trust has, both due to failures of public health to reach communities and due to well-organized efforts to spread inaccurate information about vaccination, leaving many Americans’ heads spinning as they sort through the noise and figure out who to trust.

We shouldn’t have to keep telling the public just how well vaccines work and just how essential they are: the proof is all there in the data. But maybe we should still have been explaining those data to the public, because in the absence of that sort of communication, others have taken the baton, contorted it, and presented their alternate version to the relay running public.
And as a scientist, it’s both absolutely infuriating that these snake oil salesmen and grifters have peddled their constant lies and unfounded theories around vaccination, and thoroughly depressing that (some) people have looked at the evidence set out before them, and then chosen to believe these venomous blatherskites.

For many in medicine, the resurgence of measles, along with declining rates of routine childhood vaccination, is a concerning sign of what’s to come. If we’re losing ground on measles, we may soon be vulnerable to other vaccine-preventable diseases. Whooping cough cases are already rising. Polio, Hib, or even diphtheria may soon appear in our emergency rooms.

It’s shocking and it’s embarrassing. And YLE’s attempt at a measured response to this upcoming crisis:

…the road back to a world where this isn’t a challenge will not be paved with more facts, fear, or finger-wagging. It will be built, as it always has, through stories and relationships—one respectful, genuine, evidence-based conversation at a time.

is absolutely admirable, but also smacks of someone living in a Walter Mitty world.

Sure, it would be perfect if we had the time, the resources and the ability to talk to concerned, confused parents and families out there and explain to them why they should listen to us and not the other “opinions” on this. But firstly, we don’t have the capacity to do that, and even if we did, in this divided, polarised world, there’s no reason why they would take our word over the nice “doctors” with their brain worms, and their books and supplements to sell. And I say that because if the public could see through the lies and the clever manipulation of the anti-vax lobby, then they would surely have done so already and we wouldn’t be facing this disastrous situation.

This won’t get any better anytime soon.
In fact, without wanting to be pessimistic, I don’t see how it will get any better anytime at all.

DARG on Sunday

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Bit of an emotional one this morning, as we took all the beagle’s assorted stuff to a local dog adoption centre for them to use with their dogs. Toys, food, baskets, bowls, medication – it all went – and it was heartwarming to see some of the stuff being put into active use before we had even left. Clearly, it will make a positive difference to the dogs there, and hopefully they will benefit from having some nice stuff ahead of being adopted into loving homes.

Back home to work off the emotional stress with a mighty gym workout and a bit of random sport on the TV. Superbikes (dull), cricket (slightly less dull), cycling (actually not dull at all today), and tennis (forced upon me and definitely the very most dull of all).

(Impressive serve speeds though.)

Want to help out with our local dog adoption centre, but don’t have dog stuff to donate?
Give them some cash!

Click here for details on how to donate, or if you are a Snapscan user, here’s their QR code:

See?

Incidentally, I don’t find myself wanting to watch any football this evening, because it won’t improve my overall sport experience today. Gianni Infantino and his crappy tournament can voetsek.

Crane crash

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It might be a bit of an old-fashioned attitude, but if you are going to have national symbols, then surely how you choose to look after them is something of a measure of just how much pride you have in your country?

The King Protea is our national flower: it’s bold, it’s admired and revered.
The Springbok is our national animal: known for its agility and speed, synonymous with SA’s rugby wins.
The Blue Crane is our national bird: we’re killing it off.

Blue Crane numbers have decreased by between 27% and 49% in the last fifteen years: the patchy data available being indicative of just how little we actually care about what’s happening to these beautiful birds. And perhaps the more worrying aspects of this rapid decline are:
a) the fact that it is likely multi-factorial – with some of those factors being beyond our immediate control, and
b) the fact that over 60% of the remaining Blue Crane population is found in one single, small area – other Overberg wheat belt. Lose that population and really is game over.

As a result, the Blue Crane’s official conservation status has recently been officially changed to reflect this deterioration from Near Threatened to Vulnerable in the newly published Regional Red Data Book of Birds 2025.
Vulnerable reflects a higher category of threat – just below Endangered and Critically Endangered status on the Red List. This means that without significant conservation efforts, these species are likely to become endangered in the near future and face a high risk of extinction in the wild in the medium term.

As mentioned above, there are many reasons suggested as to why we are still losing Blue Cranes in this way. Aside from the problems attributed to climate change – a lack of rainfall (I know, I know) is a key driver for nest failure, and things are only going to get hotter and drier in the Western Cape – farming practices and power lines are also terrible news for Blue Crane numbers.

And while some mitigation has happened over the last decade, we’ve also chosen to build wind farms throughout the Overberg, with seemingly no thought for the Blue Crane. The turbines themselves are known for being dangerous to birds, and the additional transmission lines right through the most sensitive habitat areas of our national bird obviously increase the risks.

Collision with power lines remains the main threat to Blue Cranes, and ongoing mitigation is necessary, especially as new power lines are added to connect renewable energy to the grid. This is particularly a threat in the Renewable Energy Development Zones of the Overberg and Karoo.

Thankfully, there is now precedent for blocking construction of wind farms, but with South Africa’s ongoing issues with a stable electricity supply (and the disgusting pollution up North), there are many proponents for the expansion of wind power, as well. And the best places for those farms as far as wind goes, is right through Blue Crane habitats.

The fact that the Blue Cranes nest in wheat fields means that they are susceptible to danger from agricultural practices, such as mechanical implements (ploughing, harvesting), and the use of chemicals – targeted against rodents and other pests like geese.

Research has shown that Blue Crane breeding success in the Overberg has halved since the last published study 30 years ago. Pairs of Cranes now raise on average just 0.55 fledglings. You don’t need a maths qualification to see that those numbers will never sustain the population – especially with additional pressures such as power lines and the like.

There is some good news, some glimmers of hope.
Some farmers are displaying some of that apparently missing national pride, and acting as custodians for the Blue Cranes. Special Management Areas like the Nuwejaars Wetlands are connecting like-minded agricultural properties together, establishing safe areas and natural habitat for our wildlife, while still enabling famers to make a decent living.

But these sort of schemes are still a drop in the ocean, both in terms of area, and in terms of reducing the overall, numerous and external threats to the Blue Crane. And unless something – and no, I really don’t know what – is done to prevent this ongoing, dramatic crash in numbers, then in the very near future, we – like Mauritius – are going to have to choose a new national bird.

Science has the answer

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OK. Not always, but in the case of the current heatwave across the UK, big steps have been made – by Science – in working out from where the problem originated.

Honestly, who knew?

No such problems here. We haven’t seen the massive star for quite a while (although tomorrow promises to be quite nice, if a little chilly).

We’ll just have to keep going with the warming effects of fermented juice of local vineyard crops – as discovered by scientists.

Well… me.

The view from the gallery

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It’s dull, grey, cold and miserable out there today. Misty and drizzling all day. Seemingly impossible to warm up. We’ve all been taking turns at getting as close to the fireplace as we can.

And so a monochrome cartoon from the Gallery of Apocalyptic Arts seems somewhat appropriate:

Of course, Cape Town isn’t ugly and industrial and horrible. At least, it wasn’t yesterday – I can’t see very much of it today in the gloom. But as an allegory for the general state of the world at the moment, this is sadly rather accurate.

Truly horrible.