Tag: trump

On Tariffs

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I’m not an economist. But I know some people who are.
And they don’t seem very impressed with Trump’s tariff plans:

Oof. But I am a scientist, so I know how a graph should look, and perhaps more importantly, how it shouldn’t look. That there isn’t a good look. If this was a patient, they’d be on their way to ICU.

$2 trillion gone in less than half an hour. Poof!

You can say many things about Trump (and people do), but you can’t knock his power. Even 80s magician David Copperfield is impressed, and he made the Statue of Liberty disappear.
Trump is just making money vanish. Well, that and actual Liberty.

Still, you can’t argue that these things haven’t been well thought out. There’s clearly been a lot of planning that’s gone on here. The penguins of the Heard and McDonald Islands are finally paying the price for their frankly heinous 20% import tariffs on American goods. Famed for exporting Elephant Seal Oil as recently as… er… 1877, it seems like the infamous H&McDI Stock Exchange would be in all sort of bother if it actually existed.

No-one has lived there for decades, but these tariffs mean that if anyone ever does live there again, they won’t be exporting much to the US.

Elsewhere, the EU (including France) gets a tariff of 20%, but Réunion (part of France and therefore also part of the EU) gets hit with 37%. But of course, French Guiana, Mayotte and Martinique (each part of France and therefore also part of the EU) get a 10% tariff on their exports to the US.

Réunion has had it too easy for too long.

The big losers in this whole thing is everyone. But if I were to be more specific, it would be St Pierre & Miquelon. This isn’t a French overseas territory: it’s a French Overseas Collective – Collectivité d’Outre-Mer.
But because of… er… reasons, their exports to the US will be charged an additional 50%. That’ll teach them for being to close (geographically, not necessarily politically) to Greenland.

Only local boys Lesotho (as far as I can see) manages to match the heady height of a 50% tariff, so Southern African

diamonds, garments, wool, power equipment and bedding

markets will be hit. And it looks like the mokorotlo won’t be part of the New York Spring 2026 Collections anymore.

It’s the clear attention to detail that makes me think that maybe these tariffs might well have been devised by a troop of circus monkeys who have been blindfolded and then instructed to throw various coloured darts at a world map.

I’m just impressed that there was anyone in America who was able to work out which countries the darts hit.

More on that thing that’s happening over there

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As a scientist, I have written a lot of stuff which is detailed, well referenced, and (I think, at least) explains things in a straightforward, step-by-step manner which can be understood by the layperson. Sometimes, I write them on the blog. Like this, maybe. However, recently, those sort of posts have been few and far between. They take a lot of research and effort and this blog is something of a hobby for me, not a job. I simply don’t have the time to lob out 2,000 words on stuff very regularly. I’m sure this is a relief to some of you and a bit of an annoyance to others, but that’s the way the cookie crumbles, much to the beagle’s delight.

Other people do write stuff for a living though, and so I’m going to piggy back on a really well-researched, really nicely written post here today. It’s from Your Local Epidemiologist (YLE), which is a sceince communication website:

Providing a direct line of “translated” public health science to you.

And they do exactly that: cutting through the big words and the jargon…

Scientists, Engineers, Lawyers and, most of all, Medical Doctors have been using unnecessary terminology to maintain their lofty positions in society for years. I hate it. One of the most important things I have learnt during my career is that presentations, explanations, even informal chats about work and technical stuff should always be pitched according to one’s audience. Sure, chat to the Prof about Extended Spectrum Beta-Lactamase producing Gram Negative Bacilli, call them ESBLs – he’ll understand. But when you’re explaining it to your mum, call them “superbugs” – and then she’ll understand too. Otherwise you’re wasting your time.

…to give a easy to understand – and so a useful and easy to learn from! – version of what’s happening in public health at the moment.

And that’s exactly what Kristen Panthagani has done here.
[PDF mirror here for anyone struggling with the Substack website]

She describes in intimate detail and open, honest language why Trump’s health policies – in the hands of the loony RFK Jr. – are based on inconsistencies and nonsense, and the huge and very real costs of getting this sort of thing wrong. Which they are clearly doing.

It’s a really great read with fundamental concepts which apply to so many other of the dodgy internet health cowboys and grifters plaguing us out there, and I’d fully encourage you to take a few minutes out to read through it and follow some of the links which support her watertight case.

I’d write more of this sort of thing if I could.
For the moment, though, please enjoy someone else’s fine work.

Today’s chuckles

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We had a lovely school concert last week (as briefly documented here), but what if school concerts were like festivals?

I mean, no offence intended, but yeah, you might think twice.

We’ve been through this one before.

Just with slightly different terminology. But that doesn’t make it any less true.

In fact, if anything, the mental images conjured up by these descriptions are actually more accurate.

Look, Climate Change is a real thing…

But don’t worry. Whoever the Big Orange Goon puts in charge of the USA’s Environmental Department will surely sort it all out. After all, President (Elect) Spanky McLiarface is doing wonderful work already, putting a rabid anti-vaxxer in charge of Health, doubling the number of wankers in charge of Government Efficiency, and putting this tosser as head of Defence:

Of course, he later claimed he was joking about that (you decide), but he’s still deadly serious about…

Women in the military:

“I’m straight up just saying, we should not have women in combat roles. It hasn’t made us more effective. Hasn’t made us more lethal. Has made fighting more complicated,” he explained. “Our institutions don’t have to incentivize that in places where traditionally—not traditionally, over history—men in those positions are more capable.”

About who he thinks is going to command the military:

He wrote that “affirmative action posts have skyrocketed, with ‘firsts’ being the most important factor in filling new commanders. We will not stop until trans-lesbian Black females run everything!”

About how stupid Ivy League graduates are:

“I have a new rule, the more elite the university and advanced a graduate is, the dumber they are. If you went to an Ivy League, prove that you have any common sense at all.”

Hegseth went to Princeton and Harvard, which actually does kind of prove his point.

And about how he just wants to get along with everyone:

“Next to the communist Chinese and their global ambitions, Islamism is the most dangerous threat to freedom in the world. It cannot be negotiated with, coexisted with, or understood; it must be exposed, marginalized, and crushed,” he wrote in American Crusade.

Wait. What?

Voting for Donald: I’m swung!

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Ask any political commentator and they’ll tell you that the only states that matter in the United States right now are the swing states. And look for any Presidential candidate right now, and they’ll be in one of those swing states, trying to swing it their way.

North Carolina is one of those swing states, and yesterday, Republican candidate [checks notes] “Donald Trump” was there trying to swing it his way.

It’s worth remembering that this is a tough ask. The candidates for the two main parties are pretty much neck and neck, and of course they would be, since they are the best two people that America could find to choose between for the biggest job in the country and one of the biggest jobs on the planet.

And because these candidates are the best, because the job is so big, and because the race is so tight, literally every word counts. Everything will be analysed, broken down, fact checked and reported.
The voters think that they’ve heard it all before, and so it’s going to take something exceptional to put either one of the big guns into the all important driving seat.

With all that in mind, please enjoy Donald Trump’s closing remarks in Gastonia, NC this weekend:

“When I say insane asylums, and then I say, Doctor Hannibal Lecter, does anybody know? They go crazy they say, oh, he brings up these names out of – well, that’s genius, right, Doctor Hannibal Lecter.

There’s nobody worse than him. Silence of the Lambs. Who the hell else would even remember that? I have a great memory but they always hit me. I don’t bring it up too much because they have to take such a – he brought up Hannibal Lecter. What does that have to do with this? What is it? It has everything to do with it, right? He was – that’s who we are allowing into our country and we can’t allow it in our country.

So I’ve done something for you for you that I haven’t done in 20 speeches, I brought up Doctor Hannibal Lecter and we’re allowing him, you watch, you watch these fake people will say again, he brought up Hannibal Lecter has absolutely nothing to do. You know I do the weave, right, the weave it’s genius. You bring up Hannibal Lecter, you mention insane asylum. Hannibal Lecter. You go out, now there’ll be a time in life where the weave won’t finish properly at the bottom and then we can talk.

But right now it’s pure genius hey, I have an uncle, my uncle, Uncle John, my father’s brother, 41 years at MIT longest serving professor has so many degrees he didn’t know what the hell to do with them all in the most complicated, I understand a lot of this stuff, you know, I believe in that. Like, I mean, Jack Nicklaus is not gonna produce a bad golfer. Right you know, that’s the way it works it’s just one of those things and it’s in the family and it’s whatever.”

I know, right?

For me, it’s obviously right up there with MLK Jr.’s I Have A Dream or Churchill’s We Shall Fight On The Beaches. And thus, it will surely take its rightful place as the most inspired – and most inspiring – political monologue of the 21st Century. And I suppose that I could add “so far” on the end of that sentence, but really, who amongst us honestly believes that this will be outdone in the next 76 years?

Literally all of America has been crying out for something… anything: some sign or indication as to who should lead their country for the next 4 years. And if you read those words above and the answer isn’t clear to you… well… then I don’t know what needs to be done.

Of course, the real issue here is that North Carolina needed swinging, and so Trump came out with this absolute shitshow of rambling, nonsensical drivel in front of his supporters at the event – and all across America – and they will still choose to vote for him.

“Doomed” doesn’t even begin to cover it.

Still grey

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Apparently, there’s a chance of some sunshine tomorrow, but for the moment, the rain keeps falling. Almost 350mm in the last 10 days now. It’s pretty miserable. This photo isn’t from today, because I’m here, not there, but I’d guess that it’s a fairly accurate representation of much of the Western Cape at the moment. Especially the bit with that lighthouse on it.

Even the much vaunted Hungarian goose down duvet has failed, and we have required additional coverage for the past couple of nights. Sure, 10 degrees or so won’t seem like a big deal to many readers, but we’re just not set up for that here. And with good reason: it really doesn’t make sense for 90% of the year. So no central heating, double glazing, warm carpets etc etc. And when it gets cold at night outside, it gets cold at night inside too.

Trump shot a bit this morning. Footy final a bit later today.

That line just for context when I read back about how much more important the crappy weather is to me than politics or sport, when I find this post in 5 years time.