Can I just say…?

Blogging is such a fun thing to do. Voice your opinions on a subject or your prediction of an event and you’ll get people agreeing or disagreeing with you, and then everyone moves on, because the internet has created a culture whereby your opinions on something yesterday is so… well… yesterday.

This can be extremely useful when you mess up on whatever you opined or predicted, because no-one remembers it anyway. Only the worse kind of stalkers will go back and look stuff up to get what I believe are commonly known as “receipts”. Most of the time, it’s swept under the rug and you can quietly move onto your next error.

But what if you were right? Because every so often, that does happen.
Well, then it actually becomes a bit annoying, because all that time ago, you said the thing that proved to be correct and yet everyone has moved on and you don’t get to take any well-deserved credit for it.

Not fair.

There is a way around this, of course. You can blow your own trumpet. And that’s exactly what I’m about to do, because [self-blown fanfare]:

Oh my golly gosh.

If only someone had said something two weeks ago(!) about it almost certainly being linked to salad:

Maybe even going as far as to name the actual bit of salad that it would be:

I mean, that could have literally been life-saving advice right there.

I choose to listen to experts because they are experts, and I will happily tell you what experts are saying about football, politics, potato chips, aeroplanes, cartography and AI. Whether you choose to believe my thoughts and opinions on their words is completely up to you.

But do not doubt me on my microbiology.

And please continue to wash all your salad items before use.

Keep well.

Weather confusion

I’m seeing a lot of social media posts from local (SA) people who have chosen to head to Blighty for a Christmas or New Year break. And in so many of them, the caption is something along the lines of:

A quick shot of us all before the rain started again…

or:

It’s another grey day in London…

Oh. I’m sorry. What exactly were you expecting from the UK in the middle of winter? Sydney Opera House perhaps? The Hanging Gardens of Babylon? Herds of wildebeest sweeping majestically across the plain?

This is, after all, a country which you regularly ridicule for ‘not having a summer’, and yet you’re irritated by the fact that it does winter things in winter? Weirdos.

Can I suggest that if you were looking for something warmer and drier, you used your Rands to go somewhere… well… warmer and drier?

More sunshine, but probably less Buckingham Palace.

Honestly though, moaning about the inclement UK weather in early January just makes you look daft. Rather head over there when the weather is better.

I think they have that planned for 2pm on July 23rd this year. But do check nearer the time.

Interesting graph

From a famous mathematician.

Your chances of sharing a space with someone who is Covid positive, based on a given prevalence of Covid in the local population and a given number of people in the space:

So (using the arrow as an example), when 7% of the local population have the virus, if you share a space (supermarket, pub, restaurant, SA taxi) with about 20 people, there’s a 50% chance that at least one of them will be Covid positive.

For those that are interested in the maths, I’ve calculated the probability of at least one person in the room having Covid as 1-(1-p/200)^N Where p is the population prevalence as a percentage and N is the number of other people in the space.

In the UK at the moment, prevalence is somewhere around 4%: 1 in 25 people are positive. And that means that if you are packed tightly in any given space together with any more than about 90 people, there will be at least one of you who is positive…

Oh. Oh dear.

And yet there are still no precautions of any sort being put in place. Quite bizarre

Of course there are a few terms and conditions to Kit’s graph.
Some people might isolate if they are Covid positive. Some people might be Covid positive but asymptomatic. Some people might not have bothered getting tested, so they won’t know if they’re positive or not. All of these might affect the assumed prevalence.

And then, of course, just because you share a space with someone who is Covid positive doesn’t mean you’ll get infected (although, see headline above). That will depend on the size of the space (and therefore your proximity), the amount of time you and they spend in the space, the ventilation in the space and – of course – whether either (or both) of you is wearing a mask.

But it’s a super useful tool for just showing how likely any of us is to be sitting next door to someone who is positive. Lovely stats. Only mildly scary.

UK trip

Great news. I was going to have a quick nap this afternoon, but instead, I started planning a UK trip later this month.

The not so good bit? It’s not my UK trip.

Mrs 6000 is heading overseas to Türkiye (yes, Türkiye) for work purposes and to get that close to Blighty from our little outpost down in the bottom corner of Africa and not get over there for a few days seemed genuinely silly.

But finding train tickets and planning family visits does at least mean I could stay awake and live vicariously through her, this afternoon.

And save the insane jealousy for when her flight takes off in a couple of weeks time.