More research needed

Here’s an interesting article about the recent (last 10 years) chaotic weather that has hit Cape Town.

Its writing was precipitated (no pun intended) (or was it?!?) ostensibly by the storms that hit in April, after the storms that hit in September, after the drought that hit a few years back.

And since it was published, we’ve had more extreme weather. 200mm of rain falling onto Cape Agulhas last week, rendering that road – and many more – undrivable again.

Look, this is the Cape of Storms, as referenced in the article. But climate change should be making Cape Town drier, but these extreme events aren’t related to the cold fronts that bring the winter rain to our region. These are the cut-off lows (see 6000 miles… passim) which can occur at any time of year – and they appear to have been occurring quite a lot recently.

They’re nothing new. The Laingsberg Flood of January 1981 was due to a cut-off low.

But are there more cut-off lows than previously, or are we just more aware of them? Are these handful of floods just an unfortunate series of severe weather events, or is this what we must be planning for in the future?

Sadly, n just doesn’t equal enough to give us a definitive answer.

As it says, we now need some more information, but given the toll of these floods: whether it being people cut off, having property damaged, livestock drowning or whatever, we need it soon, please.

Day 159 – Spring Day lolz

Yes. It’s Spring Day. The start of Spring if you are a meteorologist. In the Southern Hemisphere.

And you could almost believe that it was Spring, were it not for the weather warnings issued by… er… meteorologists. In the Southern Hemisphere.

Stuff like:

And:

Actually, tomorrow’s is a bit of a weird one: rather than the usual low pressure flying across the Southern Atlantic from Argentina, this deep low has formed over Namibia and is heading down the West coast as we speak. Were it a bit further inland into the Karoo, we’d be into cut-off low, “Black South Easter” territory, but it looks like this one will sweep around the Cape coast and dissipate as it heads off South West from us into whatever is down there (spoiler: not much).
So not quite another Laingsburg (hopefully anyway), but it will still be wet and windy.

That said, today has been a massive 10 degrees warmer than yesterday, so I’ve done all of the washing and I’m going to lob some burgers on the braai this evening ahead of tomorrow’s nastiness. Because it’s also worth noting that while the rest of the week is also “Spring”, it’s looking every bit as unpleasant going towards the weekend. That’s because of a weak, transatlantic (“normal”) cold front.

I’ve said it before, but when I moved over here, I’m sure that September and October used to be nicer than they are now. The seasonal South Easter would set in sometime around late September and then we’d know that there was a change in seasons. Likewise, it would have moved on by New Year, leaving January and February to just be hot instead of hot and stupidly windy.

All of that has changed. The South Easter hasn’t given up until March in the last few years, ruining an extra three months of otherwise perfectly lovely outside time.

I shall be contacting my local representatives if that happens again this time around.

But hey, that’s all some distance away.
Let’s get through tomorrow’s excitement first, shall we?

 

Batten down your beagles.

Cut off low

*tuts like an expensive plumber or garage mechanic*

“Well, there’s yer problem, innit?”ma_sy“See, what you’ve got ‘ere is that Sarf Atlantic ‘igh forming a ridge of raised pressure, which is cuttin’ off that low pressure area, isolatin’ it over the Cape coast, innit?

I’d say you’re buggered, squire.”

Full explanation.