More research needed

Here’s an interesting article about the recent (last 10 years) chaotic weather that has hit Cape Town.

Its writing was precipitated (no pun intended) (or was it?!?) ostensibly by the storms that hit in April, after the storms that hit in September, after the drought that hit a few years back.

And since it was published, we’ve had more extreme weather. 200mm of rain falling onto Cape Agulhas last week, rendering that road – and many more – undrivable again.

Look, this is the Cape of Storms, as referenced in the article. But climate change should be making Cape Town drier, but these extreme events aren’t related to the cold fronts that bring the winter rain to our region. These are the cut-off lows (see 6000 miles… passim) which can occur at any time of year – and they appear to have been occurring quite a lot recently.

They’re nothing new. The Laingsberg Flood of January 1981 was due to a cut-off low.

But are there more cut-off lows than previously, or are we just more aware of them? Are these handful of floods just an unfortunate series of severe weather events, or is this what we must be planning for in the future?

Sadly, n just doesn’t equal enough to give us a definitive answer.

As it says, we now need some more information, but given the toll of these floods: whether it being people cut off, having property damaged, livestock drowning or whatever, we need it soon, please.