Tag: forecast

If the rain in the Western Cape could just calm its tits a bit, that would be great

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OK, disclaimers first. I know that it’s autumn. I know that it’s meant to rain from about now through until the end of August if we’re lucky. I know that we need the rain to fill up the dams so that we can have water in the summer. And I know that if it doesn’t rain all in one go, then it will have to rain all the time, and that’s not great.

But…

Another 31mm on a single day?

Is this the way that things are going to work from now on? 4 miserable days in a row, one of them with added flood risk?

I’m just asking so that I can try to adjust to this new normal.
And sort out the waterproofing in my garage.

Or is there perhaps a plan to get all the rain done by June and then have an extra two months of summer? Obviously, that is not going to happen, and it would have a horrific effect on agriculture and wildlife if it did. But an extra 8 weeks of sunshine would please a lot of people. Just saying.

Either way, if thing keep going like this, we’re going to have the dams back up at 100% well in time for next summer.
Whenever that might start.

What are the chances…?

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What are the chances of there being loadshedding over the next year or so?

Well, in this breakdown (no pun intended), Eskom (our state electricity provider) (occasionally, at least) details how much electricity we’re likely to need and how much they’re likely to be able to supply for the next 52 weeks

Green is good, i.e. Supply > Demand = no loadshedding expected.
Red is bad, i.e. Demand > Supply = there will be loadshedding.

Aaand…

Ah. Oh.

ACTUALLY QUITE RED.

To be honest, the red “worse case” blocks “only” stretch as far as Stage 2 (ish). That is, about 2000MW short. And without normalising or excusing the awful situation, I think that – right now – most South Africans would take that as being something of a win.

Especially as we’re sitting at Stage 4 this evening.

But of course there is no redder red than the red on this table. So actually the red means AT LEAST Stage 2, and could mean anything up to Stage 37 (or whatever). I think we need a purple and a burgundy and maybe even (terrifyingly) a black, so that we can really see what’s going on.

On the plus side, Week 13 next year looks brighter – quite literally – well, unless it’s not.

We should have our personal measures to mitigate this nonsense installed by the end of the month, all being well. Roll on that glorious day.