What are the chances…?

What are the chances of there being loadshedding over the next year or so?

Well, in this breakdown (no pun intended), Eskom (our state electricity provider) (occasionally, at least) details how much electricity we’re likely to need and how much they’re likely to be able to supply for the next 52 weeks

Green is good, i.e. Supply > Demand = no loadshedding expected.
Red is bad, i.e. Demand > Supply = there will be loadshedding.


Ah. Oh.


To be honest, the red “worse case” blocks “only” stretch as far as Stage 2 (ish). That is, about 2000MW short. And without normalising or excusing the awful situation, I think that – right now – most South Africans would take that as being something of a win.

Especially as we’re sitting at Stage 4 this evening.

But of course there is no redder red than the red on this table. So actually the red means AT LEAST Stage 2, and could mean anything up to Stage 37 (or whatever). I think we need a purple and a burgundy and maybe even (terrifyingly) a black, so that we can really see what’s going on.

On the plus side, Week 13 next year looks brighter – quite literally – well, unless it’s not.

We should have our personal measures to mitigate this nonsense installed by the end of the month, all being well. Roll on that glorious day.