Always wanted to use that phrase (which will mean a lot more to local readers than to anyone elsewhere). But yes, its death knell is sounding, it has one foot in the grave, it is moribund and it is clearly no longer pining for the fjords.
What is it?
Padel. Padel is what it is.
About two years ago, some sage bloke wrote a rather witty and perhaps not ever so kind piece about the this sport, which ended with the lines:
Thankfully, it won’t be around for long.
Please remember to recycle your bat on the way out.
And golly gosh, it seems like he was right. The time has come and the fad has passed.
The Daily Maverick told us last week of the upcoming complete over-saturation of the padel market and the inevitable crash that will… er… inevitably follow. Because there are lessons to be learned from those who came before SA:
Trends come and go, and a look at international markets may hold some clues for eager padel investors. In Sweden, which was once a padel pioneer, the market is now struggling with oversaturation. As a result, Swedish giant We Are Padel is applying for corporate restructuring and may have to close half of its 80 venues.
South Africa is following exactly the same trajectory as Sweden did, and look what’s happening here now:
Although the early adopters of padel were cashing in, paying off their courts within a year thanks to their 70% occupancy rates, things have shifted. Most South African padel courts now operate at just 30% to 50% occupancy, according to Roger Barrow, general manager of the Padel Building Company.
And with fewer people playing – and therefore paying – and even more courts appearing:
Virgin Active Padel Club, already home to 65 courts, plans to push that number to nearly 100 by mid-2025
it’s surely only a matter of time before the bottom drops out of the market.
Oh no.
Hey, and to add to those woes, there’s the sudden appearance of Pickleball.
Pickleball is another sport that shit tennis players can try to play to help them forget just how bad they are at tennis.
But I won’t be joining them because (contrary to popular belief) I’m not an septuagenarian living in a Florida retirement complex.
Yet.
Anyway, Pickleball is seen as “a market disruptor” (for translation, see this post), and probably the only thing that will keep local Padel players from defecting is the fact that Pickleball is crazily accessible to many more of the economic demographics, unlike the rather elite and aloof Padel, which for starters, has to be played in a huge aquarium.
Either way, though. It’s clear that the end is indeed naai, Padel naaiers.
Hate to say I told you so.