Here’s an interesting article in the New York Times (behind a “free” “paywall”, but summarised here for your ease of reading):
These are the personal opinions of a group of 511 epidemiologists and infectious disease specialists who were asked by The New York Times when they expect to resume 20 activities of daily life, assuming that the pandemic and the public health response to it unfold as they expect.
These are American epidemiologists, so their timelines will (and should!) be different to what our local experts might think – maybe we need to add two or three months to each of the timelines presented here. Additionally, it should be noted that their 3-12 month period includes a winter – that’s our “now”.
Important disclaimer:
Their answers are not guidelines for the public, and incorporate respondents’ individual life circumstances, risk tolerance and expectations about when there will be widespread testing, contact tracing, treatment and vaccination for Covid-19.
So yes, there are a lot of variables, assumptions and personal opinions in there, but even given that, there are still some interesting trends to look at.
The NYT has helpfully highlighted the most popular option in each case and assigned them to a “now”, “soon” or “much later” section.
Those first three are pretty clear cut, but the haircut has divided them, hasn’t it? And – as I think we are experiencing already in our everyday lives – it’s very much a case of wanting/needing to do something and then performing a mini mental risk/benefit assessment as to whether it’s worth doing.
Mail – something we want and need, limited risk – let’s go.
Doctor – something we need, possible risk, but yes, beneficial – ok.
Weekend break – definitely a want more than a need, potentially risky, but you can make a call on where you’re going and what precautions or safeguards are in place there and then choose based on that knowledge – could be safe.
Haircut – would be nice, but certainly won’t die without it, prolonged close personal contact – hmm, maybe not just yet.
Although:
For Robert A. Smith of the American Cancer Society, a haircut might be worth the risk: “It really is a trade-off between risky behavior and seeing yourself in the mirror with a mullet.”
Fair point.
And then there are the ones which are a bit further out:
‘Hiking with friends’ and ‘sending kids to school’ are interesting, given that some people are already doing the former in Cape Town and we’re all being told to do the latter. And yet (with that time difference mentioned above), the majority of the experts questioned here would be looking at ±6 months before they would consider either of them.
A lot of epidemiologists have a lot more faith in the safety of tubular aluminium petri dishes than I do. It’ll take a lot to get me flying again before there’s a vaccine and I’ve had it.
Another figure that sticks out here for me is the 4% who will never go back to exercising in a gym. Earlier in lockdown, someone (locally) said on twitter that they had realised just how easily they could manage without gym. At that point, I was really missing my time at gym, but the longer that time goes by, the less I feel I need it. Will I go back when I am allowed to? Performing that little risk assessment in my head, no, probably not. Obviously, I appreciate the benefits of it, but it is a properly high risk environment:
Surprise, surprise, the more energetic your breathing, the more virus you expel. So runners are the ones who are more likely to be spewing clouds of virus out.
Stick a lot of heavily-breathing, exercising individuals in an enclosed space and… well… you do the maths. It’s not pretty.
No thanks.
And then there are the things which used to be perfectly normal, but are now – and will remain for the next year, at least! – out of bounds for most of the respondents.
And yes, it seems that social contact is the major casualty of the pandemic. But then, were our learned friends doing it anyway? T. Christopher Bond from Bristol Myers Squibb states:
“Real epidemiologists don’t shake hands.”
Yeah. Us microbiologists aren’t big fans of the practice, either.
Masks work. Epidemiologists recognise this fact and most will be wearing them for the foreseeable future – probably until they have been vaccinated. Mere mortals should take notice of this. Look at that 7% in the first column (and add the 3 months) and understand how much a part of our daily lives masks are going to be for the rest of 2020 and probably most of 2021 as well.
And then the sporting event, concert or play. Sadly, these things are now a high risk luxury and I can’t see them coming back (safely) any time soon. Maybe not ever again in the way that we used to enjoy them before.
So what was your last concert or sporting event BTV, and will it be your last one ever?
I bet you weren’t thinking that way when you were there.
As mentioned above: this isn’t a scientific study, but it is a study of scientists and I think it provides a valuable insight into how the behaviour and the lives of the people in the know is going to change.
And if they are thinking that way, why should we feel that we know any better?