It’s happening next door

Botswana has implemented loadshedding. That might not seem very surprising to people “overseas”, but generally, Botswana is regarded as the stable, unfluttered, well-managed, “sensible cousin” bit of the Southern Africa. Well, the bit on the continent, anyway: Mauritius is the gold standard for excellence if you’re willing to cross a bit of ocean. More beaches than Botswana too.
But look:

It reads almost word for word like an Eskom announcement. And indeed, why not copy the text from the experts? A couple of points regarding the above: the footer unironically stating that they are “Powering Botswana To Prosperity” (except for the next few weeks, it seems). And the images top right, which are actually the same image, but with one very slightly rotated. Sadly, this only serves to suggest that the transmission line in question is falling over. Prescient.

Of course, we’re also in for blackouts this evening, including one at dinner time. Spotting this ahead of time, I’ve fired up the braai and we’re going to make the most of it with some decent meat and some decent red wine. There’s nothing we can do about it, and constant unfettered rage (like this lady – wow) will surely only lead to an early grave (which will mean less incidences of loadshedding in your lifetime, but still…).
So we’re going to cook oor die kole this evening, saving electricity we haven’t got and making the most of the situation. The glass is always half full, unless it’s that shiraz from Tulbagh (which it is), in which case it gets drained pretty quickly.

Pre-drinks?

A rather nice Bloody Nora (with this and this). Soooo good.

See you on the other side.

Off again – and that font?!?

The issue with our ailing power utility – so we were told – wasn’t the years and years of rampant corruption, but rather the guy who was in charge. He was in the process of stepping down when he gave that bombshell interview about all the corruption and was politely(?) asked to leave immediately.

So, now that he has gone, everything should be ok. Right?

Wrong.

Weirdly, it seems that he wasn’t the issue. So we have no idea what the problem could actually be*, but there clearly is a problem of some sort. Because I’m sitting here for another 10 hours without power today, because of the ongoing demand and supply problem. We want 31.3MW, they can only give us 24.7MW. And if you don’t cut the power to cover that shortfall, everything falls over and it’s a very bad thing.

Those figures come from this tweet from last night:

And I actually love the way that they’ve done their best to cushion the blow by using a whimsical font. Who do we think came up with that idea?

“Not looking great on the grid figures tonight. We’re dangerously short and we need to tell people.”
“OK. Send the twee… no… wait. Do you have a kind of handwritingy font we could use?”
“What?”
“You know. Something a bit fun and disarming.”
“But we’re the official state power utility. Shouldn’t we be using the official state fonts?”
“Well, yes. But let’s show our human side. Just something a bit playful and quirky to take their minds off the awful numbers.”
“Well, I mean, I have got this one…”
“Like, actually Oh Em Gee! It’s So frikkin perfect! Look at the devil-may-care lack of connection on the loops! Observe the mildly curved downstrokes! The capricious overshoot on the Es and Ms! Do it!”
“Er… right. The numbers are still bloody horrendous, though.”
“Who cares? It’s so pretty! Quick, just click SEND before the boss comes back!”

I imagine that’s pretty much how it went, anyway.

Sadly, using my scientific brain, I was able to see through the eccentric and unprofessional choice of typeface, and I’m actually pretty worried about just how bad the situation is. But hey, it’s so easy to get bogged down in bad news. I guess that we should take solace in the fact that they haven’t used Comic Sans yet, so maybe we’re still somewhere just above rock bottom.

* although there is still that years and years of rampant corruption thing, but… surely not?!

What are the chances…?

What are the chances of there being loadshedding over the next year or so?

Well, in this breakdown (no pun intended), Eskom (our state electricity provider) (occasionally, at least) details how much electricity we’re likely to need and how much they’re likely to be able to supply for the next 52 weeks

Green is good, i.e. Supply > Demand = no loadshedding expected.
Red is bad, i.e. Demand > Supply = there will be loadshedding.

Aaand…

Ah. Oh.

ACTUALLY QUITE RED.

To be honest, the red “worse case” blocks “only” stretch as far as Stage 2 (ish). That is, about 2000MW short. And without normalising or excusing the awful situation, I think that – right now – most South Africans would take that as being something of a win.

Especially as we’re sitting at Stage 4 this evening.

But of course there is no redder red than the red on this table. So actually the red means AT LEAST Stage 2, and could mean anything up to Stage 37 (or whatever). I think we need a purple and a burgundy and maybe even (terrifyingly) a black, so that we can really see what’s going on.

On the plus side, Week 13 next year looks brighter – quite literally – well, unless it’s not.

We should have our personal measures to mitigate this nonsense installed by the end of the month, all being well. Roll on that glorious day.

Could this be it?

And by “it”, I mean the first day (24 hour period, midnight to midnight) for us with no loadshedding this year?

It’s definitely a lot longer than that as well, given that we had a very loadsheddy end to 2022, but I don’t have the figures to hand.

Of course, there is actual loadshedding elsewhere, but we are unaffected – as yet. Last time they tried to do this, everything broke down halfway through the day and we ended up on Stage 4 with 10 minutes notice. So let’s not count chickens, but also, let’s hope that we have a whole 24 hours of uninterrupted electricity supply.

But why is this possible? Well, no-one seems very sure, but it’s “lower expected demand” [sic] and fewer broken generation units, apparently:

(If you’re reading from overseas, you’ll likely be looking at the above wondering WTF any of it actually means, but we’re well used to deciphering this sort of language now.)

And why fewer broken generation units? Well, no-one seems very sure. The installation of a new Minister of Electricity, the departure of the CEO of Eskom, and some minor party threatening violence on the streets of SA tomorrow are being touted as the reasons, but none of those could miraculously fix years and years of decay, corruption and lack of investment. So maybe it’s good fortune or – more likely – a lack of sabotage. But why a lack of sabotage?

Well, no-one seems very sure.

It’s all rather confusing, very welcome, and probably completely unsustainable.

Disruption

I’m back in my car park, but surely only briefly. There are, I would estimate, around 400 people at this particular sports complex this evening. Dodgeball, squash, rugby – at least two different team groups, baseball and dog agility training. (There are several dogs, as well.)

And we’re all going to have to go home when the power goes off at 8 o’clock. Training truncated. Sports shortened. Activities abbreviated. That’s a lot of people who are having their evening ruined.

It’s also going to make the traffic out of here quite horrible.

Back home 6000 miles… away, things are looking equally disrupted. But this time, it’s the weather.

The local road through to Manchester – always an early casualty in the snow – has been closed, but you’ve got to be a bit of a mindreader to know. (Or, you know, just notice that there’s white stuff on the floor and put two and two together.)

Derbyshire County Council has announced the A57 Snake Pass, a link between Sheffield and Manchester, is closed. They said in a statement the road was closed because of snow, adding: “Unfortunately the electronic signs we have on the pass are not working today.”

Please do not attempt this road or any of the others we have closed.

Ooh. Very cryptic. I got my crystal ball out and tried to work out which other roads those were, but all I came up with was the Three of Clubs. So, I’ll dutifully be avoiding that this evening.