Ah, the Cape winter. Bringing with it days of endless sunshine and temperatures in the low to mid twenties. Well, not usually, but that seems to be what’s happening at the moment. The first (and possibly second) of the infamous South Atlantic cold fronts that bring wind, rain, wind and rain to the Mother City are but a distant memory and we’re left with pretty days and clear skies forecast for the rest of the week. But we’re not complaining. We’re just enjoying these moments while we can, because we all know that there is trouble ahead, meteorologically speaking.
In an unrelated story, it seems that there’s also trouble ahead, politically speaking, for the ANC. The Daily Maverick’s Stephen Grootes puts their ultra-aggressive campaigning down to a sudden realisation that they are about to be dealt a warm klap by the electorate (a la Liberal Democrats back in the UK) and sheer damage limitation.
Zuma knows that, generally speaking, and with a hugely broad brushstroke, if you’re poor, black and pissed off, you’re just not voting. If you’re white, middle-class and pissed off, you’re going to vote, but not for him. So he’s got to invoke something to get the masses out to vote. And he is almost forced to be heavy-handed. How do you counter the image of black people on TV old enough to remember the days when they couldn’t vote now saying they will not vote? Well, you claim they’ve “been fed propaganda”, and invoke the horror of our past. It’s pretty sharp, but it’s all there is left for Zuma to use.
And political analysts here at 6000 miles… when asked their opinions on what might occur next Wednesday were very clear:
ANC support to *decrease* in CT – no chance for Tony. DA and Cope alliance to take Nelson Mandela Bay. ANC to get big scare in JHB, nearly losing it. Big DA inroads everywhere, and by far our most significant election since 94.
Which goes against the official ANC line that they can win Cape Town, but is very much in keeping with the other official ANC line which says that they can’t win Cape Town.
ANC provincial secretary, Songezo Mjongile is with Zuma in the former camp, talking up their chances of getting 750,000 votes and installing Tony Ehrenreich as Mayor:
“To win the City of Cape Town, the ANC needs (to win) 56 wards and about 750 000 (proportional) votes based on the expected turn-out. The trends show this is attainable,” said Mjongile.
If the ANC’s supporters flocked to the polls, he said, the DA’s support would fall below 50 percent.
The problem with Mjongile’s statement is firstly that, as mentioned above, the ANC’s supporters are unlikely to flock to the polls and secondly, that no-one can see which trends he is talking about. In the last Local Government elections back in 2006, the ANC received 280 232 proportional votes in the City of Cape Town. That’s some way short of the 750 000 that he is hoping for this time around.
And our analysts may have a point about Jo’burg as well, as DA MP (and infamously, Daily Maverick Opinionista) Ian Olsen notes:
Rumours spreading of City of Joburg officials told to destroy sensitive documents, “In case ANC doesn’t win” Eish… Rats departing!
Which reminded us of the final days of Cape Town Mayor Nomaindia Mfeketo and her “gift” to the people of the city of city manager Wallace Mgoqi, whose contract was extended in the final days of the ANC-led city council in 2006; a decision which was promptly revoked by the incoming Helen Zille. Mgoqi clung like a barnacle before finally being dumped into the middle-management dustbin by a fourth court ruling against him.
It remains to be seen what surprises (or lack of them) the ANC will leave should they lose Johannesburg, but one thing is for sure – it’s looking like the next fortnight is going to bring stormy weather for those in the green, black and yellow camp.
If they wanted Cape Town they should have thought more carefully before making remarks about “needing to redistribute Coloured people” I reckon. Maybe the ANC will finally learn to think before they speak? Haha ok maybe not.